AU Data
- Tuesday 11.30 RBA Meeting Minutes
- Wednesday 10.30 Leading Index previous 0.4%m/m
- Wednesday 13.05 RBA Governor Stevens speaks
- Thursday 11.30 RBA Bulletin
Last week saw a mixed bag of data from Australia with both business and consumer confidence falling to multi year lows before employment change surprised to the upside (29,800) and unemployment fell against expectations to 4.2%. This week the market will focus on Glenn Steven’s speech on Wednesday and the RBA bulletin on Thursday in order to gauge whether inflation is sufficient and the economy is in good enough shape to warrant further interest rate hikes.
NZ Data
- Monday 08.45 Retail Sales previous 1.0%m/m actual down 1.2%
- Tuesday 08.45 CPI previous 0.7%q/q
Last week saw NZIER Business confidence equal last months reading of -64, although it was encouraging to see the recent decline abating the indicator remains at 33 year lows. This week the market will be focusing on Monday’s retail sales, in order to gauge whether falling consumer sentiment has filtered through to sales on the high street. However, this week’s highlight will be Tuesday’s CPI number, where the market will look to determine whether inflationary pressures are sufficiently contained to allow the RBNZ to loosen monetary policy.
US Data
- Tuesday 22.30 Core Retail Sales previous +1.2%m/m
- Tuesday 22.30 PPI and Core PPI previous 1.4%m/m & 0.2%m/m
- Tuesday 22.30 Empire State Manufacturing Index previous -8.7
- Wednesday 00.00 Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies
- Wednesday 22.30 CPI previous 0.6%m/m
- Wednesday 23.00 TIC Net Long-Term Transactions previous US$115bn
- Wednesday 23.15 Industrial Production previous -0.2%m/m
- Thursday 00.00 Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies
- Thursday 04.00 FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Thursday 22.30 Housing Starts previous 0.98m
- Thursday 22.30 Unemployment Claims previous 346k
- Friday 00.00 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index previous -17.1
The USD remained on the back foot last week as concern that government intervention may be required to keep mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac solvent. US mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp Inc had to be rescued by the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York creating IndyMac Federal Bank FSB. From a data perspective the US trade deficit narrowed to $59.8bn in May and US consumer sentiment edged up to 56.6 but this could be an anomalous result following the recent tax rebates. This week’s key event will be Bernanke’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony to congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is also plenty of data this week, as PPI (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) should give the market a good indication of the inflationary pressures facing the US economy. The currency market will once again be keeping a watchful eye on US Financials and equity markets as a whole.
JPN Data
- Tuesday BoJ Interest Rate Decision
- Tuesday 16.00 BoJ Monthly Report
- Friday 09.50 BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Last week saw core machinery orders beat expectations and climb by 10.4% in May, rising for the second straight month and another example of resilience in the Japanese economy. In the absence of any significant data the market will be focusing on Tuesday’s interest rate decision when the market expects rates to be left on hold at 0.50%.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| AUS (RBA) |
7.25% |
+25bps |
04/03/08 |
5th August |
| NZ (RBNZ) |
8.25% |
+25bps |
26/07/07 |
24th July |
| US (FED) |
2.00% |
-25bps |
30/04/08 |
5th August |
| JPN (BOJ) |
0.50% |
+25bps |
21/02/07 |
15th July |