AU Data
- Wednesday 11.30 Buidling Approvals for September previous -1.70%
- Thursday 11.30 Retail Sales for September previous 0.70% m/m
- Thursday 11.30 Trade Balance for September previous -$1.16bn
Last week was dominated by inflation data with PPI eclipsing market expectations and coming out at 1.1%, this was further compounded by the RBA's underlying measure of CPI hitting 0.95% (headline 0.70%). Thus the market has now priced a 90% chance of a 0.25% interest rate hike by the RBA next week. THis week the market will focus on Thursday's Trade Balance to see if the strength of the AUD is having an adverse effect on exporters and it is also likely to be a keen observer of moves in the equity market.
NZ Data
- Monday 08.45 Trade Balance for September previous -$6.34bn y/y actual -$6.256bn y/y
- Wednesday 13.00 NBNZ Business Confidence for October
As widely expected the RBNZ left interest rates on hold at 8.25% citing that rising food prices and increased fiscal spending had added to persistent inflation pressure; however they have witnessed signs of an easing housing market. This week the market will focus on Wednesday's confidence release to see if the strength of the NZD is having a negative impact on business confidence.
US Data
- Wednesday 01.00 Consumer Confidence for October previous 99.8
- Wednesday 23.30 GDP Advance for Q3 previous 1.90%
- Thursday 00.45 Chicago PMI for October previous 1.90%
- Thursday 23.30 PCE Deflator for September previous -0.1%
- Friday 01.00 ISM (Manufacturing) for October previous 52
- Friday 01.00 Pending Home Sales for September previous 6.50%
- Friday 23.30 Non-Farm Payrolls for October previous 110k
- Friday 23.30 Unemployment Rate for October previous 4.70%
Last week was once again dominated by poor US housing data as existing home sales fell a further 8.0% and new homes saw significant downward revisions to the two previous months. The market is now increasingly confident the FOMC will be forced to further loosen monetary policy beyond 0.25% cut expected on Wednesday (Thursday morning Australia & New Zealand time). This week sees a plethora of data from the US with the principle highlights being the PCE deflator on Thursday followed by the employment report on Friday.
JPN Data
- Monday 10.30 Unemployment for September previous 3.80%
- Monday 10.50 Retail Sales for September previous -0.5% m/m
- Wednesday 16.00 Housing Starts for September previous -43.30% y/y
- Wednesday 17.00 BoJ Outlook Report for H2
With a relatively light data calendar last week a 1.4% in Industrial Production was the only highlight. The market instead focused on equity market performance and the JPY was sold off as risk appetite returned towards the end of last week. This week the market will focus on Wednesday's BoJ report and interest rate decision (expected to be left on hold) for outlook on the economy and monetary policy in the world's second largest economy.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| AUS (RBA) |
6.50% |
+25bps |
08/08/07 |
7th November |
| NZ (RBNZ) |
8.25% |
+25bps |
26/07/07 |
6th December |
| US (FED) |
4.75% |
-50bps |
18/09/07 |
31st October |
| JPN (BOJ) |
0.50% |
+25bps |
21/02/07 |
31st October |