AU Data
- Friday 11.30 Current Account Balance for Q3 previous -AU$15.99bn
In the absence of any key data from Australia last week, it was once again the equity markets that determined the AUD's direction as risk aversion took hold. This week is again relatively light on the data front with the only highlight being Friday's current accoubnt data, which will be watched closely to gauage the affect of a stronger AUD on Australia's trade position.
NZ Data
- Thursday 13.00 NBNZ Business Confidence previous -12.9
NZD traders were again focusing on the equity markets for inspiration as a recovery in the Dow pushed the NZD to an overnight high of 0.7597. This week the foreign exchange market will again take its lead from global equity markets, as it looks to gauage investor's appetie for risk and keep a watchful eye on any further fall out from the sub-prime crisis.
US Data
- Wednesday 02.00 Consumer Confidence for November previous 95.6
- Thursday 00.30 Durable Goods for October previous -1.70%
- Thursday 02.00 Existing Home Sales for October previous 5.04m
- Thursday 06.00 Fed Beige Book
- Friday 02.00 New Home Sales for October previous 770k
- Saturday 00.30 PCD Deflator for October previous 0.20%
- Saturday 01.45 Chicago PMI for November previous 49.7
Last week's only real highlight was the FOMC minutes, which stated that October's cut had been a close call athis led many in the market to believe any further monetary loosening will be delayed until the New Year. This week sees a plethora of data from the US with the market focusing on Thursday morning's Beige Book and Saturday's PCE deflator for an indication on the health of the economy and the scope for further interest rate cut from the FED.
JPN Data
- Wednesday 10.50 Retail Sales for October previous 0.50%
- Friday 10.30 CPI for October previous -0.20%y/y
- Friday 10.30 Unemployment Rate for October previous 4.00%
- Friday 16.00 Housing Starts for October previous -44.00%
Once again the JPY was the principal beneficiary of widespread risk aversion last week, however the market was relatively stagnant towards the end of the week as liquidity dropped off with market holiday's in the US on Thursday and Japan on Friday. This week the market will focus on Friday's CPI data to see if inflation has any prospect of forcing the BoJ to adjust its ultra loose monetary policy.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| AUS (RBA) |
6.75% |
+25bps |
07/11/07 |
5th December |
| NZ (RBNZ) |
8.25% |
+25bps |
26/07/07 |
6th December |
| US (FED) |
4.50% |
-25bps |
31/10/07 |
11th December |
| JPN (BOJ) |
0.50% |
+25bps |
21/02/07 |
20th December |