AU Data
- Thursday 14.30 Preliminary Good Imports previous 7%
- Thursday 14.30 RBA Bulletin: October
- Friday 14.30 September Car Sales previous -1.9%
- Friday 14.30 Traded Goods Prices Q3 previous imports 0.1% exports 0.3%
Last week we saw employment increase by 13k which was below expectations of 20k. This week the terms of trade is released on Friday which shows the ratio of Australia's import prices to our export prices. While this report does not commonly bear so much focus from the market, this week it could provide a crucial link in the exten of the correlation between international issues such as the sub-prime lending in the US and Australia's future growth.
NZ Data
- Monday 10.45 Food Prices -0.1%
- Monday 10.45 CPI Q3 previous 1%
- Friday 10.45 Visitor Arrivals previous 3.8%
Last week we saw minimal data our of New Zealand. The highlights this week will be CPI on Monday and Visitor Arrivals on Friday. CPI is expected to show a continued concern of inflation while Visitor Arrivals is expected to remain at a subdued level due to the high NZD.
US Data
- Tuesday 01.30 Empire Manufacturing previou 14.7
- Wednesday 02.00 Total net TIC flows previous USD103.8bn
- Thursday 01.30 CPI previous -0.1% Core 0.2%
- Thursday 01.30 Housing Starts previous 1,331,000
- Thursday 01.30 Building Permits previous 1,322,000
- Thursday 02.00 IMF World Economic Outlook
- Wednesday 07.00 Fed's Beige Book
Last week was very quiet on the data front from the US. The expected highlight was the minutes from the FOMC meeting which showed a unanimous decision to cut rates. While there is a large amount of data coming out of the US this week the two to watch are CPI which will show the effect the rate cut by the Fed has had on inflation in the US and the IMF Economic Outlook. We expect the IMF to lower its forecast on US growth but maintain its forecasts for the rest of the world.
JPN Data
- Monday 17.30 Capacity Utilisation previous 104.4
- Monday 17.30 Industrial Production previous 3.4
- Wednesday 12.50 Tertiary Industry previous -0.5%
- Friday 12.50 All Industry Activity previous 0.4%
As widely expected the Bank of Japan left rates on hold last week as inflationary pressure remains negligible. While the data this week is generally conceived as important, it is widely expected for it to convey the same underlying theme of minimal inflation that we have seen from Japan throughout the year.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| AUS (RBA) |
6.50% |
+25bps |
08/08/07 |
7th November |
| NZ (RBNZ) |
8.25% |
+25bps |
26/07/07 |
25th October |
| US (FED) |
4.75% |
-50bps |
18/09/07 |
31st October |
| JPN (BOJ) |
0.50% |
+25bps |
21/02/07 |
31st October |