AU Data
- Monday 11.30 Trade Balance for October previous -AU$1.86bn
- Tuesday 11.30 Building Approvals for October previous 6.8%
- Tuesday 11.30 Retail Sales for October previous 0.8%
- Wednesday 09:30 RBA INterst Rate Announcement
- Wednesday 11.30 GDP for Q3 previous 0.9%
The AUD was buoyed in late trading last week as the current account deficit surprisingly shrunk to AU$15.59bn. However AUD gains were capped as the USD benefited from month end squaring of positions. This week the market will focus on Wednesday's interest rate decision where it fully expects the RBA to leave rates on hold at 6.75%. The market will also pay close attention to the Retail Sales and GDP figures to gauge whether the economy is sufficiently strong to warrant further monetary tightening.
NZ Data
- Thursday 7.00am RBNZ Interest Rate Announcement
Last week was again light on the data front and like the AUD the NZD was the victim of month end squaring against the USD towards the end of the week. This week the market will focus on Thursday's interest rate decision where it expects the RBNZ to leave rates on hold at 8.25% as the risks to the economy remain finely balanced. The market will again be keeping a watchful eye on equity markets to see if the NZD can maitain its current high degree of correlation.
US Data
- Tuesday 02.00 ISM Manufacturing Survey for November previous 50.8
- Thursday 02.00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey for November previous 55.8
- Satruday 00.30 Non-Farm Payrolls for November previous 166k
- Saturday 00.30 Unemployment for November previous 4.7%
- Saturday 02.00 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for December previous 76.1
Last week saw a plethora of data from the US; consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month to a four year low of 87.3, existing home sales fell to 4.97m and the Beige Book stated that the economy is now growing at a slower pace. However, this was offset by a surprisingly strong Chicago PMI (52.9) and comments from Ben Bernanke which implied that further interest rate cuts are likely in the weeks ahead and this in turn sparked a rally in the US equity markets. This week the market will focus on Friday's employment report to gauge whether the recent financial market turmoil has filtered through to the labour market.
JPN Data
- Friday 10.50 Revised GDP for Q3
Last week saw the CPI climb to 0.1% along with BoJ expectation of gradually climbing inflation fuelled by high food and energy prices however, inflation is still relatively low and with concern over the potential fall out from a deepening sub-prime crisis and a slow down in the US this is unlikely to force the BoJ into raising interest rates anytime soon. This week the market will focus on Friday's GDP number for an indication on the health on the world's second largest economy.
Interest rate outlook
| Country |
Current rate |
Last change |
Date of change |
Next meeting |
| AUS (RBA) |
6.75% |
+25bps |
07/11/07 |
5th December |
| NZ (RBNZ) |
8.25% |
+25bps |
26/07/07 |
6th December |
| US (FED) |
4.50% |
-25bps |
31/10/07 |
11th December |
| JPN (BOJ) |
0.50% |
+25bps |
21/02/07 |
20th December |